WACO, Texas (KWTX) - A Waco economist on Tuesday said as bad as the devastation and damage left behind by Hurricane Laura was, it could have been eight to 10 times worse.
“The Perryman Group estimates that if the storm had made landfall as a direct hit on one of the nearby refining and petrochemical areas, such as Beaumont, the economic losses could have been eight to 10 times as large as preliminary damage estimates have indicated,” the Preliminary Estimate of Economic Harm from Hurricane Laura, peened and published Sept. 1, said.
Further, the report said, “Any economic stimulus, whether positive or negative, leads to additional responses and multiple rounds of business activity.
“Business operations have been interrupted, causing lost revenue and profits even beyond the damage to facilities. In many cases, these revenues cannot be recouped.”
The Tuesday report came on the heels of one published by Perryman on Monday which was a long-term economic forecast for Texas metropolitan areas that said the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting restrictions needed to slow the spread of the virus have caused substantial harm to the economy.
“Even in the face of significant job losses and output declines, however, the underlying (economic) structure is generally sound and long-term prospects remain positive, although the next couple of years will be quite different than what we were expecting before the coronavirus,” the forecast noted.
The effects of the hurricane are immediate, however, Perryman said, and he went on to explain that damages are only a part of the economic implications of the hurricane.
“Productivity has also been affected as workers are either absent due to problems with their homes and property or less effective on the job as they deal with those issues.”
The Perryman Group utilized its impact assessment model and current property damage estimates to measure the total economic cost of Hurricane Laura when multiplier effects are considered.
The net impact could include losses to the US economy of nearly $14.0 billion in gross product, which for Texas means losses from Hurricane Laura include $645 million in gross product and 4,300 job-years of employment when multiplier effects are considered.
For Louisiana, where the bulk of the damage was sustained, The Perryman Group estimates that losses from Hurricane Laura over the next few years include $12.2 billion gross product and about 81,800 job years of employment when multiplier effects are considered.
“Once the health crisis is adequately managed, business activity can fully resume and the economic crisis will resolve,” Perryman said.
“Expansion of 1.3% or more is projected in El Paso, Abilene, Amarillo, Beaumont-Port Arthur, College Station-Bryan, Longview, San Angelo, Texarkana, and Waco. Healthy growth is also forecast for Killeen-Temple, Victoria, and Wichita Falls,” according to the report.
“It will take a couple of years to get back on track and things will no doubt look a bit different, but we are projecting long-term job growth in metropolitan areas large and small, as well as rural communities.
“The national economy was performing well going into the pandemic and the current downturn was not caused by structural issues, but Texas was doing even better, setting the stage for sustained growth in the decades to come.
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Central Texas economist says bad as Laura was, it could have been much worse - KWTX
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