As hundreds of thousands of New Jerseyans remain in the dark and are still cleaning up the big mess left by Tropical Storm Isaias, they have to face a wave of bad news when it comes to the remainder of this already active Atlantic hurricane season.
Long-range forecasters who had predicted this would be a bad hurricane season are now saying it could be even worse than they originally thought.
But first, some good news: The Atlantic hurricane basin is very quiet right now. There’s only one tropical disturbance that’s brewing, a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and forecasters give it just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next five days.
Now the bad news: Hurricane experts from Colorado State University (CSU) say the remainder of this hurricane season — which peaks from mid-August to mid-October — is shaping up to be even more active than they initially projected.
Long-range forecasters from AccuWeather have also boosted their predicted number of Atlantic storms, saying the peak of this season could turn “hyperactive.”
In their new outlook, made public Wednesday, the experts at CSU are calling for “an extremely active” hurricane season, based on several factors:
- Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been extremely warm, helping to fuel tropical storm systems (known as tropical cyclones).
- Vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic is very weak, giving storms more of an opportunity to develop without being torn apart by these winds — which change speed and direction at different heights.
- There’s a very low probability that an El Niño weather pattern will develop this summer and fall. An El Niño pattern tends to generate more wind shear in the Atlantic, interfering with storm development.
- A major wind system in West Africa, known as the West African monsoon, has been very active. “More robust easterly waves and more conducive upper-level winds for hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic are typically associated with active monsoon,” CSU meteorologist and storm expert Phil Klotzbach notes in a Twitter post.
Old predictions and new ones
The CSU experts initially predicted 16 named storms, eight becoming hurricanes and four of those becoming major hurricanes. Their updated forecast calls for 24 named storms, including the nine that have already formed, with 12 becoming hurricanes (including Hanna and Isaias) and five becoming major hurricanes — ones with top sustained winds of 111 mph or stronger.
AccuWeather initially called for 14 to 18 named storms, seven to nine becoming hurricanes and two to four becoming major ones. Its new outlook predicts 20 to 24 named storms, nine to 11 growing into hurricanes and four to six of those becoming major hurricanes.
Long-range forecasters from AccuWeather have boosted the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in its 2020 outlook, and other storm experts have done the same.AccuWeather
During an average hurricane season, the Atlantic usually gets 12 named storms, six becoming hurricanes and two or three of those becoming major hurricanes.
In late May, many forecasters — including those from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — predicted the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season would likely be more active than normal, with NOAA expecting as many as 13 to 19 named storms.
Of those storms, NOAA predicted six to 10 would strengthen into hurricanes and three to six would become major hurricanes.
9 storms already named
As of early August, with almost four full months of the hurricane season remaining, the Atlantic has already had nine named storms. This set a record because it was the first time nine storms have been named this early in a season.
However, only two of the nine storms this year have reached hurricane status — Isaias as it approached North Carolina and Hurricane Hanna, which made landfall in southern Texas in late July.
And neither of those hurricanes were stronger than a Category 1, the lowest of five strength classifications.
So as active as this season has been, two things that haven’t played out as expected are the overall number of hurricanes and how many would strengthen into major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher.
This map shows the common areas where tropical storms develop in September, the most active month of the Atlantic hurricane season.AccuWeather
Also to keep in mind: Not all hurricanes that form affect the United States, and historically, very few have a direct impact on New Jersey.
However, the CSU experts advise everyone in coastal areas to keep their guard up.
“As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them,” CSU notes in its storm outlook. “They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”
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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Tell us your coronavirus story or send a tip here.
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The already bad hurricane season forecast just got worse - NJ.com
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